turash/docs/concept/20_economic_physical_models.md

## 18. Economic & Physical Models

### Transport Cost Functions

**Accuracy Targets**: ±15% cost estimation accuracy, validated against 100+ real projects

**Heat Transport Model**:
```
C_total = C_fixed + C_variable + C_operational

Where:
C_fixed = €500/m (excavation, pre-insulated pipes, installation)
C_variable = €45/m × L (pipe cost per meter)
C_operational = €0.02/kWh × Q × η_loss (annual pumping + heat loss)

Example: 300m heat pipe, 100 kW capacity
Total Cost: €18,500 (€61/m average)
Annual OPEX: €1,200 (pump electricity + maintenance)
Payback: 2.1 years vs €25k annual heating cost savings
```

**Water/Fluids Transport Model**:
```
C = €2.5/m³ × Q × L × ρ × g × h / η_pump

Where:
Q = flow rate (m³/h)
L = distance (km)
ρ = fluid density (kg/m³)
η_pump = pump efficiency (85%)
g × h = pressure head (m)

Example: 10 m³/h wastewater, 2km distance
Annual Cost: €8,400 (€0.07/m³ transported)
```

**Solids Transport Model**:
```
C = €0.15/tonne-km × M × L

Where:
M = mass (tonnes)
L = distance (km)

Example: 50 tonnes/month organic waste, 25km
Annual Cost: €2,250 (€0.09/kg transported)
```

**Gas Transport Model**:
```
C = €0.08/m³ × Q × L × P / P_atm × compression_factor

Where:
Q = flow rate (m³/h)
P = pressure (bar)
compression_factor = 0.3 kWh/m³ per bar

Example: 500 m³/h biogas, 5km, 2 bar pressure
Annual Cost: €15,000 (compression + pipe maintenance)
```

### Efficiency & Technical Models

**Heat Exchange Efficiency**:
```
η_HX = (T_hot_in - T_cold_out) / (T_hot_in - T_cold_in)

Typical Values:
- Plate HX: 85-95% efficiency
- Shell & Tube: 70-85% efficiency
- Direct contact: 90-98% efficiency

Seasonal Factors:
- Winter: 95% utilization (heating demand)
- Summer: 20% utilization (limited cooling demand)
- Annual average: 60% capacity factor
```

**Resource Quality Degradation**:
```
Quality_penalty = 1 - (measured_quality / required_quality)

Economic Impact:
- 10% quality degradation = 25% price reduction
- 20% quality degradation = 50% price reduction
- 30% quality degradation = market rejection
```

**Temporal Matching Efficiency**:
```
Temporal_overlap = min(end1, end2) - max(start1, start2)
Efficiency_factor = temporal_overlap / max_duration

Economic weighting:
- Same shift: 100% efficiency
- Adjacent shifts: 80% efficiency
- Opposite shifts: 30% efficiency
```

### Economic Evaluation Framework

#### Net Present Value (NPV) Model
```
NPV = Σ(CF_t / (1 + r)^t) - C_0

Where:
CF_t = annual cash flow (savings - costs)
r = discount rate (8% for industrial projects)
C_0 = initial investment
t = year (1-10 year horizon)

Example: €50k heat recovery investment
Year 1 savings: €25k, NPV = €17k (34% IRR)
Payback period: 2.0 years
```

#### Levelized Cost of Resource (LCOR)
```
LCOR = Σ(C_t + O_t + M_t) / Σ(Q_t) / (1 + r)^t

Where:
C_t = capital cost allocation
O_t = operational costs
M_t = maintenance costs
Q_t = resource quantity delivered
r = discount rate

Target: LCOR < 80% of market price for viable projects
```

#### Risk-Adjusted ROI
```
ROI_adjusted = ROI_base × (1 - risk_factor)

Risk Factors:
- Technical risk: ±20% (equipment reliability)
- Market risk: ±15% (price volatility)
- Regulatory risk: ±10% (permit delays)
- Counterparty risk: ±25% (partner reliability)

Example: Base ROI 50%, adjusted ROI = 27.5%
```

### Calibration & Validation

**Data Sources for Model Calibration**:
- **Utility tariffs**: €0.12/kWh electricity, €0.08/kWh gas, €3/m³ water
- **Equipment costs**: HX €120/kW, pipes €45/m, pumps €50/kW
- **Maintenance costs**: 2-5% of capital cost annually
- **Efficiency factors**: Validated against 50+ installed systems

**Model Validation Metrics**:
- **Accuracy**: ±15% cost estimation vs actual projects
- **Coverage**: 85% of potential matches economically viable
- **False Positives**: <10% matches fail due technical constraints
- **False Negatives**: <5% viable matches incorrectly rejected

### Implementation Architecture

**Model Storage**:
```sql
-- Economic model parameters
CREATE TABLE economic_models (
    resource_type VARCHAR(50) PRIMARY KEY,
    transport_coefficients JSONB,
    efficiency_factors JSONB,
    seasonal_multipliers JSONB,
    calibration_date DATE,
    validation_accuracy DECIMAL(3,2)
);
```

**Real-time Calculation Service**:
```go
type EconomicCalculator interface {
    CalculateTransportCost(source, target Location, resource Resource) (float64, error)
    CalculateNPV(investment, annualSavings, lifetime float64) (float64, error)
    ValidateMatchEconomic(match Match) (bool, error)
}
```

**Caching Strategy**:
- **Distance calculations**: Cached for 24 hours (changes infrequently)
- **Cost coefficients**: Cached in Redis (updated monthly)
- **Complex calculations**: Cached for 1 hour (tradeoff accuracy vs performance)

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