turash/concept/monetisation/success-metrics.md

# Success Metrics & KPIs

Turash success metrics framework tracks industrial B2B SaaS progress across revenue, customer, engagement, and operational dimensions, with quarterly reviews ensuring alignment with €4-7M Year 3 revenue target.

## 1. Revenue Metrics

### Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)

**Year 1 Trajectory**:
- **Q1**: €30k MRR (60 customers, €500 avg)
- **Q2**: €62.5k MRR (125 customers, €500 avg)
- **Q3**: €125k MRR (250 customers, €500 avg)
- **Q4**: €250k MRR (500 customers, €500 avg)
- **Year End**: €117k average MRR

**Year 2 Trajectory**:
- **Q1**: €333k MRR (650 customers, €512 avg)
- **Q2**: €500k MRR (1,000 customers, €500 avg)
- **Q3**: €667k MRR (1,350 customers, €494 avg)
- **Q4**: €833k MRR (1,700 customers, €490 avg)
- **Year End**: €583k average MRR

**Year 3 Trajectory**:
- **Q1**: €1M MRR (2,000 customers, €500 avg)
- **Q2**: €1.25M MRR (2,500 customers, €500 avg)
- **Q3**: €1.5M MRR (3,000 customers, €500 avg)
- **Q4**: €1.75M MRR (3,500 customers, €500 avg)
- **Year End**: €1.375M average MRR

### Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)

**Base Case Projections**:
- **Year 1**: €598k ARR
- **Year 2**: €1.4M ARR (134% growth)
- **Year 3**: €5.3M ARR (279% growth)

**Revenue Mix Evolution**:
- **Year 1**: Subscription 84%, Transaction 11%, Municipal 5%
- **Year 2**: Subscription 78%, Transaction 13%, Municipal 9%
- **Year 3**: Subscription 75%, Transaction 12%, Municipal 13%

### Transaction Revenue Metrics

**Lead Fee Revenue**:
- **Year 1**: €28k (50-80 introductions × €400 avg)
- **Year 2**: €138k (200-300 introductions × €500 avg)
- **Year 3**: €316k (400-600 introductions × €550 avg)

**Service Marketplace GMV**:
- **Year 1**: €40k (proof of concept)
- **Year 2**: €400k (marketplace launch)
- **Year 3**: €1.5M (mature ecosystem)

**Commission Revenue**:
- **Year 1**: €6k (group buying pilot)
- **Year 2**: €30k (regional expansion)
- **Year 3**: €80k (national scale)

### Municipal Revenue Metrics

**License Revenue**:
- **Year 1**: €65k (1-2 pilot cities)
- **Year 2**: €310k (2-4 cities, €100k avg)
- **Year 3**: €550k-1M (5-8 cities, €100k avg)

**Data Licensing**:
- **Year 1**: €15k (1 license)
- **Year 2**: €60k (3 licenses)
- **Year 3**: €150k (6 licenses)

## 2. Customer Metrics

### Customer Acquisition & Growth

**Total User Base**:
- **Year 1**: 700-1,200 free users, 240 paying customers
- **Year 2**: 1,900-3,200 free users, 750 paying customers
- **Year 3**: 4,000-7,000 free users, 1,500 paying customers

**Customer Mix by Tier**:
- **Free Tier**: 70% of total users (network effects driver)
- **Basic Tier**: 60% of paying customers (SME segment)
- **Business Tier**: 30% of paying customers (operations focus)
- **Enterprise Tier**: 10% of paying customers (large facilities)

**Geographic Distribution**:
- **Germany**: 40% (home market)
- **France/Spain**: 30% (core EU markets)
- **Nordics/Benelux**: 20% (advanced circular economy)
- **Other EU**: 10% (expansion markets)

### Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

**Blended CAC Evolution**:
- **Year 1**: €946 (industrial complexity, direct sales focus)
- **Year 2**: €762 (partnership leverage, channel development)
- **Year 3**: €474 (utility channels, network effects)

**Channel-Specific CAC**:
- **Organic/Free Tier**: €150-300 (attributed conversion value)
- **Content/SEO**: €250-600 (educational content marketing)
- **LinkedIn**: €500-1,250 (B2B targeting)
- **Partnerships**: €200-750 (utility/municipal channels)
- **Events**: €800-1,600 (industry exhibitions)

### Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)

**Tier-Specific LTV**:
- **Basic**: €2,500 (48 months, €52/month avg)
- **Business**: €12,000 (64 months, €187/month avg)
- **Enterprise**: €50,000 (80 months, €625/month avg)
- **Blended**: €4,608 (weighted average)

**LTV/CAC Ratio**:
- **Year 1**: 4.2:1 (strong foundational economics)
- **Year 2**: 4.8:1 (improving efficiency)
- **Year 3**: 9.7:1 (mature platform economics)

### Retention & Churn Metrics

**Annual Churn by Tier**:
- **Basic Tier**: 15% (month-to-month contracts)
- **Business Tier**: 10% (annual contracts, higher commitment)
- **Enterprise Tier**: 5% (multi-year contracts, switching costs)

**Retention Rates**:
- **Year 1**: 82% average (industrial learning curve)
- **Year 2**: 87% average (improved product-market fit)
- **Year 3**: 90% average (mature platform, strong retention programs)

**Net Revenue Retention**:
- **Year 1**: 95% (initial expansion focus)
- **Year 2**: 105% (upsell success)
- **Year 3**: 115% (expansion revenue from multi-site customers)

## 3. Engagement Metrics

### Platform Usage

**Daily Active Users (DAU)**:
- **Free Tier**: 30% of user base
- **Paid Tier**: 50% of customer base
- **Overall**: 35% of total user base

**Monthly Active Users (MAU)**:
- **Free Tier**: 70% of user base
- **Paid Tier**: 85% of customer base
- **Overall**: 75% of total user base

**Session Metrics**:
- **Average Sessions/User**: Free (6/month), Paid (12/month)
- **Session Duration**: Free (8 minutes), Paid (15 minutes)
- **Page Views/Session**: Free (12 pages), Paid (25 pages)

### Feature Adoption

**Core Feature Usage**:
- **Profile Completion**: 80% of facilities have complete resource profiles
- **Match Suggestions**: 65% of users engage with match recommendations
- **Contact Facilitation**: 40% of matches result in platform-facilitated contacts

**Advanced Feature Adoption**:
- **ROI Calculator**: 55% of Basic customers, 75% of Business customers
- **API Usage**: 25% of Business customers, 60% of Enterprise customers
- **Custom Reporting**: 40% of Business customers, 80% of Enterprise customers

### Match Success Metrics

**Match Quality**:
- **Proposal Generation**: 0.5-1.5 matches/facility/month
- **Contact Facilitation**: 40% of proposals lead to introductions
- **Implementation Rate**: 25-35% of introductions result in exchanges

**Economic Impact**:
- **Average Savings**: €5k-12k per successful heat exchange
- **Payback Period**: 2-5 years for infrastructure investment
- **CO₂ Reduction**: 10-50 tons CO₂/facility/year

## 4. Operational Metrics

### Platform Performance

**Technical Metrics**:
- **Uptime**: 99.9% availability target
- **Response Time**: <2 seconds average API response
- **Error Rate**: <0.1% of all requests
- **Scalability**: Support 10,000+ concurrent users

**Data Quality**:
- **Profile Accuracy**: 90% of facility data validated
- **Match Precision**: 95% algorithm accuracy
- **Calculation Reliability**: 100% audit-compliant ESG reports

### Customer Success Metrics

**Support Performance**:
- **Response Time**: 4 hours for Enterprise, 24 hours for others
- **Resolution Rate**: 85% first-contact resolution
- **Satisfaction Score**: ≥4.5/5 support rating

**Onboarding Success**:
- **Time to First Value**: 7 days average
- **Profile Completion**: 80% within 30 days
- **Match Generation**: First match within 14 days

### Team Performance

**Sales Metrics**:
- **Sales Cycle Length**: 6-9 months (industrial complexity)
- **Win Rate**: 25% qualified leads convert to customers
- **Average Deal Size**: €1,200/month (subscription + transaction)

**Marketing Metrics**:
- **Cost per Lead**: €50-150 across channels
- **Lead to Customer**: 8-15% conversion rate
- **Content Engagement**: 40% email open rates, 15% click-through

## 5. Financial Health Metrics

### Unit Economics

**Gross Margins**:
- **Year 1**: -50% (investment phase)
- **Year 2**: -73% (market development)
- **Year 3**: 38% (profitability achievement)

**Cash Flow Metrics**:
- **Runway**: 18-24 months cash availability
- **Burn Rate**: €150k/month (Year 1-2), €100k/month (Year 3)
- **Break-even**: Achieved by end of Year 3

### Profitability Timeline

**Base Case P&L**:
- **Year 1**: -€302k loss (€598k revenue - €900k costs)
- **Year 2**: -€1.01M loss (€1.39M revenue - €2.4M costs)
- **Year 3**: €2M profit (€5.3M revenue - €3.3M costs)

**Margin Expansion**:
- **Year 4 Target**: 20% gross margin
- **Year 5 Target**: 40% gross margin
- **Long-term Target**: 50%+ gross margin

## 6. Network Effects Metrics

### Clustering Density

**Geographic Concentration**:
- **Local Clustering**: ≥60% participants within 5km radius
- **Regional Networks**: 20+ industrial clusters by Year 3
- **Cross-Cluster Matches**: 15% of matches span cluster boundaries

**Industry Participation**:
- **Facility Coverage**: 5-10% of industrial facilities in target regions
- **Sector Balance**: Manufacturing (40%), Chemical (25%), Food (20%), Other (15%)
- **Company Size**: SMEs (80%), Large facilities (20%)

### Ecosystem Health

**Partner Network**:
- **Utility Partnerships**: 3-5 (Year 2) → 10+ (Year 3)
- **Municipal Licenses**: 2-4 (Year 2) → 20+ (Year 3)
- **Facilitator Network**: 50 (Year 2) → 200+ (Year 3)

**Market Feedback**:
- **NPS Score**: ≥40 (industry-leading)
- **Testimonials**: 50+ customer success stories
- **Case Studies**: 20+ detailed implementation examples

## 7. Risk & Compliance Metrics

### Security & Compliance

**Data Protection**:
- **GDPR Compliance**: 100% audit compliance
- **Data Breaches**: Zero incidents
- **Privacy Impact**: Regular assessments

**Platform Security**:
- **Penetration Tests**: Quarterly security audits
- **Incident Response**: <4 hour response time
- **Certification**: ISO 27001, SOC 2 achieved by Year 2

### Regulatory Metrics

**ESG Compliance**:
- **Report Accuracy**: 100% audit validation rate
- **Calculation Transparency**: Full methodology documentation
- **User Satisfaction**: ≥4.5/5 compliance tool rating

**Grant Compliance**:
- **Funding Utilization**: 95% of grant funds deployed as intended
- **Reporting Accuracy**: 100% on-time delivery
- **Impact Demonstration**: Quantified CO₂ and economic benefits

## 8. Leading vs. Lagging Indicators

### Leading Indicators (Predictive)

**Early Warning Signals**:
- **Usage Drop**: 20% reduction triggers intervention
- **Support Tickets**: 30% increase indicates product issues
- **Lead Pipeline**: 25% below target triggers sales acceleration

**Growth Signals**:
- **Free Tier Engagement**: 25% increase predicts paid conversion
- **Match Quality**: Improving algorithm accuracy predicts revenue growth
- **Partnership Pipeline**: New utility deals predict geographic expansion

### Lagging Indicators (Outcome)

**Revenue Achievement**:
- **MRR Growth**: Monthly recurring revenue targets
- **ARR Expansion**: Annual contract value growth
- **Revenue Mix**: Diversification across streams

**Customer Health**:
- **Retention Rate**: Annual churn metrics
- **Expansion Revenue**: Additional facility sales
- **LTV/CAC Ratio**: Unit economics efficiency

## 9. Dashboard & Reporting

### Executive Dashboard

**Daily Metrics**:
- Revenue (MRR, pipeline)
- Customer growth (new signups, churn)
- Platform health (uptime, errors)

**Weekly Metrics**:
- Customer acquisition (CAC, conversion rates)
- Engagement (DAU/MAU, feature usage)
- Operational (support tickets, NPS)

**Monthly Metrics**:
- Financial performance (LTV/CAC, gross margins)
- Customer success (retention, expansion)
- Strategic KPIs (clustering density, partner growth)

### Quarterly Business Reviews

**Cross-Functional Alignment**:
- **Product**: Feature adoption, user satisfaction, roadmap progress
- **Sales**: Pipeline health, win rates, territory expansion
- **Marketing**: Lead quality, channel performance, brand metrics
- **Operations**: Support efficiency, process improvements, cost control

**Strategic Planning**:
- **Market Analysis**: Competitive positioning, opportunity sizing
- **Financial Planning**: Budget performance, forecasting accuracy
- **Risk Assessment**: Threat identification, mitigation effectiveness

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*Success metrics framework provides comprehensive tracking of industrial B2B SaaS progress, ensuring alignment with €4-7M Year 3 revenue target through data-driven decision making and continuous optimization.*