turash/concept/monetisation/success-metrics.md

Success Metrics & KPIs

Turash success metrics framework tracks industrial B2B SaaS progress across revenue, customer, engagement, and operational dimensions, with quarterly reviews ensuring alignment with €4-7M Year 3 revenue target.

1. Revenue Metrics

Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)

Year 1 Trajectory:

• Q1: €30k MRR (60 customers, €500 avg)
• Q2: €62.5k MRR (125 customers, €500 avg)
• Q3: €125k MRR (250 customers, €500 avg)
• Q4: €250k MRR (500 customers, €500 avg)
• Year End: €117k average MRR

Year 2 Trajectory:

• Q1: €333k MRR (650 customers, €512 avg)
• Q2: €500k MRR (1,000 customers, €500 avg)
• Q3: €667k MRR (1,350 customers, €494 avg)
• Q4: €833k MRR (1,700 customers, €490 avg)
• Year End: €583k average MRR

Year 3 Trajectory:

• Q1: €1M MRR (2,000 customers, €500 avg)
• Q2: €1.25M MRR (2,500 customers, €500 avg)
• Q3: €1.5M MRR (3,000 customers, €500 avg)
• Q4: €1.75M MRR (3,500 customers, €500 avg)
• Year End: €1.375M average MRR

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)

Base Case Projections:

• Year 1: €598k ARR
• Year 2: €1.4M ARR (134% growth)
• Year 3: €5.3M ARR (279% growth)

Revenue Mix Evolution:

• Year 1: Subscription 84%, Transaction 11%, Municipal 5%
• Year 2: Subscription 78%, Transaction 13%, Municipal 9%
• Year 3: Subscription 75%, Transaction 12%, Municipal 13%

Transaction Revenue Metrics

Lead Fee Revenue:

• Year 1: €28k (50-80 introductions × €400 avg)
• Year 2: €138k (200-300 introductions × €500 avg)
• Year 3: €316k (400-600 introductions × €550 avg)

Service Marketplace GMV:

• Year 1: €40k (proof of concept)
• Year 2: €400k (marketplace launch)
• Year 3: €1.5M (mature ecosystem)

Commission Revenue:

• Year 1: €6k (group buying pilot)
• Year 2: €30k (regional expansion)
• Year 3: €80k (national scale)

Municipal Revenue Metrics

License Revenue:

• Year 1: €65k (1-2 pilot cities)
• Year 2: €310k (2-4 cities, €100k avg)
• Year 3: €550k-1M (5-8 cities, €100k avg)

Data Licensing:

• Year 1: €15k (1 license)
• Year 2: €60k (3 licenses)
• Year 3: €150k (6 licenses)

2. Customer Metrics

Customer Acquisition & Growth

Total User Base:

• Year 1: 700-1,200 free users, 240 paying customers
• Year 2: 1,900-3,200 free users, 750 paying customers
• Year 3: 4,000-7,000 free users, 1,500 paying customers

Customer Mix by Tier:

• Free Tier: 70% of total users (network effects driver)
• Basic Tier: 60% of paying customers (SME segment)
• Business Tier: 30% of paying customers (operations focus)
• Enterprise Tier: 10% of paying customers (large facilities)

Geographic Distribution:

• Germany: 40% (home market)
• France/Spain: 30% (core EU markets)
• Nordics/Benelux: 20% (advanced circular economy)
• Other EU: 10% (expansion markets)

Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

Blended CAC Evolution:

• Year 1: €946 (industrial complexity, direct sales focus)
• Year 2: €762 (partnership leverage, channel development)
• Year 3: €474 (utility channels, network effects)

Channel-Specific CAC:

• Organic/Free Tier: €150-300 (attributed conversion value)
• Content/SEO: €250-600 (educational content marketing)
• LinkedIn: €500-1,250 (B2B targeting)
• Partnerships: €200-750 (utility/municipal channels)
• Events: €800-1,600 (industry exhibitions)

Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)

Tier-Specific LTV:

• Basic: €2,500 (48 months, €52/month avg)
• Business: €12,000 (64 months, €187/month avg)
• Enterprise: €50,000 (80 months, €625/month avg)
• Blended: €4,608 (weighted average)

LTV/CAC Ratio:

• Year 1: 4.2:1 (strong foundational economics)
• Year 2: 4.8:1 (improving efficiency)
• Year 3: 9.7:1 (mature platform economics)

Retention & Churn Metrics

Annual Churn by Tier:

• Basic Tier: 15% (month-to-month contracts)
• Business Tier: 10% (annual contracts, higher commitment)
• Enterprise Tier: 5% (multi-year contracts, switching costs)

Retention Rates:

• Year 1: 82% average (industrial learning curve)
• Year 2: 87% average (improved product-market fit)
• Year 3: 90% average (mature platform, strong retention programs)

Net Revenue Retention:

• Year 1: 95% (initial expansion focus)
• Year 2: 105% (upsell success)
• Year 3: 115% (expansion revenue from multi-site customers)

3. Engagement Metrics

Platform Usage

Daily Active Users (DAU):

• Free Tier: 30% of user base
• Paid Tier: 50% of customer base
• Overall: 35% of total user base

Monthly Active Users (MAU):

• Free Tier: 70% of user base
• Paid Tier: 85% of customer base
• Overall: 75% of total user base

Session Metrics:

• Average Sessions/User: Free (6/month), Paid (12/month)
• Session Duration: Free (8 minutes), Paid (15 minutes)
• Page Views/Session: Free (12 pages), Paid (25 pages)

Feature Adoption

Core Feature Usage:

• Profile Completion: 80% of facilities have complete resource profiles
• Match Suggestions: 65% of users engage with match recommendations
• Contact Facilitation: 40% of matches result in platform-facilitated contacts

Advanced Feature Adoption:

• ROI Calculator: 55% of Basic customers, 75% of Business customers
• API Usage: 25% of Business customers, 60% of Enterprise customers
• Custom Reporting: 40% of Business customers, 80% of Enterprise customers

Match Success Metrics

Match Quality:

• Proposal Generation: 0.5-1.5 matches/facility/month
• Contact Facilitation: 40% of proposals lead to introductions
• Implementation Rate: 25-35% of introductions result in exchanges

Economic Impact:

• Average Savings: €5k-12k per successful heat exchange
• Payback Period: 2-5 years for infrastructure investment
• CO₂ Reduction: 10-50 tons CO₂/facility/year

4. Operational Metrics

Platform Performance

Technical Metrics:

• Uptime: 99.9% availability target
• Response Time: <2 seconds average API response
• Error Rate: <0.1% of all requests
• Scalability: Support 10,000+ concurrent users

Data Quality:

• Profile Accuracy: 90% of facility data validated
• Match Precision: 95% algorithm accuracy
• Calculation Reliability: 100% audit-compliant ESG reports

Customer Success Metrics

Support Performance:

• Response Time: 4 hours for Enterprise, 24 hours for others
• Resolution Rate: 85% first-contact resolution
• Satisfaction Score: ≥4.5/5 support rating

Onboarding Success:

• Time to First Value: 7 days average
• Profile Completion: 80% within 30 days
• Match Generation: First match within 14 days

Team Performance

Sales Metrics:

• Sales Cycle Length: 6-9 months (industrial complexity)
• Win Rate: 25% qualified leads convert to customers
• Average Deal Size: €1,200/month (subscription + transaction)

Marketing Metrics:

• Cost per Lead: €50-150 across channels
• Lead to Customer: 8-15% conversion rate
• Content Engagement: 40% email open rates, 15% click-through

5. Financial Health Metrics

Unit Economics

Gross Margins:

• Year 1: -50% (investment phase)
• Year 2: -73% (market development)
• Year 3: 38% (profitability achievement)

Cash Flow Metrics:

• Runway: 18-24 months cash availability
• Burn Rate: €150k/month (Year 1-2), €100k/month (Year 3)
• Break-even: Achieved by end of Year 3

Profitability Timeline

Base Case P&L:

• Year 1: -€302k loss (€598k revenue - €900k costs)
• Year 2: -€1.01M loss (€1.39M revenue - €2.4M costs)
• Year 3: €2M profit (€5.3M revenue - €3.3M costs)

Margin Expansion:

• Year 4 Target: 20% gross margin
• Year 5 Target: 40% gross margin
• Long-term Target: 50%+ gross margin

6. Network Effects Metrics

Clustering Density

Geographic Concentration:

• Local Clustering: ≥60% participants within 5km radius
• Regional Networks: 20+ industrial clusters by Year 3
• Cross-Cluster Matches: 15% of matches span cluster boundaries

Industry Participation:

• Facility Coverage: 5-10% of industrial facilities in target regions
• Sector Balance: Manufacturing (40%), Chemical (25%), Food (20%), Other (15%)
• Company Size: SMEs (80%), Large facilities (20%)

Ecosystem Health

Partner Network:

• Utility Partnerships: 3-5 (Year 2) → 10+ (Year 3)
• Municipal Licenses: 2-4 (Year 2) → 20+ (Year 3)
• Facilitator Network: 50 (Year 2) → 200+ (Year 3)

Market Feedback:

• NPS Score: ≥40 (industry-leading)
• Testimonials: 50+ customer success stories
• Case Studies: 20+ detailed implementation examples

7. Risk & Compliance Metrics

Security & Compliance

Data Protection:

• GDPR Compliance: 100% audit compliance
• Data Breaches: Zero incidents
• Privacy Impact: Regular assessments

Platform Security:

• Penetration Tests: Quarterly security audits
• Incident Response: <4 hour response time
• Certification: ISO 27001, SOC 2 achieved by Year 2

Regulatory Metrics

ESG Compliance:

• Report Accuracy: 100% audit validation rate
• Calculation Transparency: Full methodology documentation
• User Satisfaction: ≥4.5/5 compliance tool rating

Grant Compliance:

• Funding Utilization: 95% of grant funds deployed as intended
• Reporting Accuracy: 100% on-time delivery
• Impact Demonstration: Quantified CO₂ and economic benefits

8. Leading vs. Lagging Indicators

Leading Indicators (Predictive)

Early Warning Signals:

• Usage Drop: 20% reduction triggers intervention
• Support Tickets: 30% increase indicates product issues
• Lead Pipeline: 25% below target triggers sales acceleration

Growth Signals:

• Free Tier Engagement: 25% increase predicts paid conversion
• Match Quality: Improving algorithm accuracy predicts revenue growth
• Partnership Pipeline: New utility deals predict geographic expansion

Lagging Indicators (Outcome)

Revenue Achievement:

• MRR Growth: Monthly recurring revenue targets
• ARR Expansion: Annual contract value growth
• Revenue Mix: Diversification across streams

Customer Health:

• Retention Rate: Annual churn metrics
• Expansion Revenue: Additional facility sales
• LTV/CAC Ratio: Unit economics efficiency

9. Dashboard & Reporting

Executive Dashboard

Daily Metrics:

• Revenue (MRR, pipeline)
• Customer growth (new signups, churn)
• Platform health (uptime, errors)

Weekly Metrics:

• Customer acquisition (CAC, conversion rates)
• Engagement (DAU/MAU, feature usage)
• Operational (support tickets, NPS)

Monthly Metrics:

• Financial performance (LTV/CAC, gross margins)
• Customer success (retention, expansion)
• Strategic KPIs (clustering density, partner growth)

Quarterly Business Reviews

Cross-Functional Alignment:

• Product: Feature adoption, user satisfaction, roadmap progress
• Sales: Pipeline health, win rates, territory expansion
• Marketing: Lead quality, channel performance, brand metrics
• Operations: Support efficiency, process improvements, cost control

Strategic Planning:

• Market Analysis: Competitive positioning, opportunity sizing
• Financial Planning: Budget performance, forecasting accuracy
• Risk Assessment: Threat identification, mitigation effectiveness

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Success metrics framework provides comprehensive tracking of industrial B2B SaaS progress, ensuring alignment with €4-7M Year 3 revenue target through data-driven decision making and continuous optimization.